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Research: The Second Great Walking

Seven months ago I wrote about the First Great Walking in 2095, caused by climate change. As I make my way through A Brief History of the Future I come to the Second Great Walking, in 2243. 

If you read my previous post, I wondered if it might come sooner than expected. So too with this date. Here is the prediction:

By the 2240s planetary warming had made some hot and dry parts of the Earth impossible to live in. After formerly vegetated parts underwent desertification people began leaving in 2243. In reality the Second Great Walking was more about fresh water than it was about heat… a billion people were on the move.

Because of population decline there was actually competition to adopt these refugees. This meant that unlike the First Walking this crisis was solved amicably without disputes or wars between migrants and adoptees.

Interesting that the first was caused by too much water and the second by lack of it. Also the comment about population decline. At the moment the population is still increasing (despite the Corona virus). Experts say it will plateau but Charles Joynson says it will decline, to the point where the migrants are welcomed.

Food for thought.

Ann Marie Thomas is the author of four medieval history books, a surprisingly cheerful poetry collection about her 2010 stroke, and the science fiction series Flight of the Kestrel. Book one, Intruders, and book two Alien Secrets, are out now. Follow her at